Independent analysis using public data
Where should a value-based oncology program launch next?
A state-level market-attractiveness model built from public CMS and cancer-registry data. Set your own weights and watch the ranking change. It comes with a 7-page strategy paper.
Medicare beneficiaries, 2025
68.1M
MA & other plan share
39.7% → 50.9%
Annual cancer cases (2019–23)
1.87M
Current top 3 (your weights)
FL · TX · NY
Weights are relative (normalized to 100%). Move a slider and the map and ranking update live.
Attractiveness map
Warmer (orange) = more attractive, green = less. Orange outline = current top 3. Tap a state for detail.
Florida #1
Score 78.7 / 100 · Recommended market
- Annual cancer cases
- 149,440
- Medicare beneficiaries
- 5,242,870
- MA share 2025
- 56.6% (2020: 48.5%)
- Medicare growth/yr
- 2.30%
- FFS $/capita (std.)
- $14,680
- Incidence /100k
- 470 (stable)
- Oncology clinicians
- 1,556 (29.7/100k)
- Top-3 robustness*
- 100%
Factor scores (0–100)
*Share of 5,000 random ±50% variations of the base weights where this state ranks top 3.
Ranking, top 15
Orange = recommended markets from the paper (Florida, Texas, New York, chosen under balanced weights).
Findings and recommendation
- Recommend Florida → Texas → New York. Florida and Texas are top 3 in about 100% of 5,000 random weight scenarios. New York is top 3 in 60% and top 5 in 98%.
- Medicare Advantage & other plans covered 50.9% of beneficiaries in 2025, up from 39.7% in 2020. That's the main buyer channel for payer-sold specialty programs.
- Florida has the highest standardized FFS spend per capita ($14,680 vs. a $12,145 median) plus 149,440 cancer cases a year and 56.6% MA share.
- Together the top 3 hold 22% of U.S. annual cancer cases. California has the most cases (187,921) but ranks 4th on lower MA share and cost.
- Weight-sensitive: Minnesota rises to #3 under MA-led or Growth weights, and Louisiana to #3 under Cost-savings.
- Phased plan: validate (0–3 months), then Florida (3–12), Texas (12–24), and New York (24–36) if KPIs are met.